Tuesday, October 11, 2005

Exhortation or exclamation?

Snafu has a post up at Once More, highlighting the severe difficulties that the Tories have in getting a majority.
In England, Conservatives polled 65,704 votes more than Labour yet won ninety-two fewer seats. In Wales, Labour polled twice as many votes as the Conservatives yet returned nearly ten times as many MPs. In Scotland, Labour polled 900,000 votes and returned forty MPs, the Conservatives polled 370,000 and returned just one MP. There are too many Conservatives across the UK condemned to another five years of Labour mis-rule because the current electoral system works against the Conservative Party.

For the Conservatives to win power outright with a majority of just two, they would need a national lead of 11.7%! A two seat majority is not a working majority. It could even be more damaging for the Conservative Party than remaining in opposition. The Prime Minister, Ken Clarke (!), would be fatally weakened by internal divisions and at the mercy of 'rebel' Euro-sceptic Conservative MPs. Naturally, such weaknesses would be exploited by opposition MPs and the media, potentially condemning the Conservative party to yet more decades in opposition.

I believe that the Boundary Commission is doing its regular review; however, I'm not holding out massive hopes of any decent return on that.

I also think that Labour is going to have to seriously piss off Murdoch before anything happens. The thing is that Tory achievements, few and far between though they have been of late, never get highlighted. For instance, Hague used to absolutely panel Blair at PM's Questions: it was an absolute joy to watch. However, all that the general public saw was a baldy, ginger geezer with some unlikely tales of his pint-sinking abilities*.

Tory achievements have to be documented and pulled into public focus by the Press and, whilst Murdoch is still—broadly speaking—behind Blair, that's never going to happen.

*Come on, William; I'll take you on in a real ale drinking competition. bookdrunk: would you adjudicate, please?

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