Sunday, September 30, 2007

Climate Cuttings #11

Well, it's that time again, when I visit Bishop Hill and bring back the precious casket containing this week's round-up of the cant, obfuscation and lies centred around the anthropogenic global warming issue.

Do go and read the whole thing but, as usual, here are a few choice cuts.
Global warming sceptics are soon to be non-persons. The Wikipedia list of those opposing the hysterical outlook on the planet's climate has been flagged for deletion. Perhaps it was getting too long?

Got to love that willingness to debate that these AGW-nuts have, eh? The thing is that so much of their faith in AGW is based on these wonderfully reliable computer models. And because "computer" is mentioned, those models have got to be right, eh?
A group of Italian scientists compared 19 climate models used in the IPCC's 4th report. The outputs are apparently entirely inconsistent with each other, thus confirming the view that climate models are currently, and possibly inherently, unreliable.

Whoops! Of course, another once-respected cheerleader for AGW, NASA's James Hansen, continues to get a kicking as people delve into his murky past.
People are still chucking rocks in the direction of NASA's bungling AGW cheerleader, James Hansen. Lubos Motl says he was involved in the 1970s global cooling scare too. Meanwhile there was a brouhaha about the fact that he appears to have been receiving money from George Soros. This follows his being showered in cash by the aforementioned Mrs John Kerry - Teresa Heinz. Why are these left-wing luminaries so generous to a public servant? The Soros story has been brought up to date by Paul Biggs writing at Jennifer Marohasy's blog.

There was lots of interest in the climate history of Wellington, New Zealand. Hansen has managed to adjust his way from a gently cooling trend to a sharply warming one. Oh, and the city seems to have disappeared altogether after 1988. Only climate scientists can make major conurbations disappear before your very eyes, it seems. Climate Skeptic's take on the affair here. Climate Audit here.

I'd almost feel sorry for Hansen, were he not so obviously a lying cunt. But the beauty of the internet is that we can now test his theories, access his data, run his computer models and expose him for the charlatan that he is. I love the internet, don't you?

Meanwhile, the 800 year lag might be less than 800 years. Or maybe more.
Those who follow the AGW debate know that in the ice core records, increases in temperature lead increases in CO2 by about 800 years, implying what we might call an inconvenient causality. The hysterics try to shrug it off by saying it's all to do with feedbacks. They were very excited by a new paper [PDF] which claimed that the lag was less than the 800 years previously thought. Unfortunately another paper a few days later suggested a lag of 1300 years.

Of course, it's always quite tricky to reconstruct past temperatures, since one is always having to use proxies.
One of the key reconstructions of the historical climate is that of Osborn and Briffa who say that the 20th Century was abnormally warm. Their work has been the subject of much attention from Climate Audit in recent years. Now another researcher, Gerd Berger of Berlin’s Institut für Meteorologie, has reported that Osborn & Briffa have not done their statistical tests correctly. This will not be a surprise to regular readers. Berger has gone on to recreate their work using the correct tests and says that doing this makes the 20th century temperatures look pretty normal.

Not only that, but the abovfe research shows temperature reconstructions from Lake Baikal, which shows that the Earth has been far warmer, frequently, than in the 20th century.

Finally, is the sun making any difference? Well, it's debateable...
Some interesting work has been published by a statistician/blogger called Jonathan Lowe. While the AGW community looks at daily max/min temperatures, JL has looked instead at temperatures throughout the day and finds that night time temperatures in Australia show no trend. It's only daytime temperatures that are rising - when the sun is out.

Just saying, is all. See you back here next time and, as usual, thanks to Bishop Hill...

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

"JL has looked instead at temperatures throughout the day and finds that night time temperatures in Australia show no trend. It's only daytime temperatures that are rising - when the sun is out."

Presumably the CO2 goes to sleep at night? ;)